Cryptic Reddit Post Predicted an Apocalyptic Indo-Pak war Four Years ago

Last Updated on June 29, 2019 by Hamad Subani

On 1st May 2014, a post appeared on the subreddit r/india detailing an apocalyptic nuclear war that would be fought between India and Pakistan, beginning on 12th January 2019 and concluding on 26th March 2019. It was then dismissed as the product of a macabre imagination. But the current escalation of conflict since mid-February 2019 has many rereading the same post seriously.

Here is the full post:

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 – Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between India and Pakistan since their mutual independence in 1947. Marked by the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare outside of World War II, an outbreak of the Green Death and widespread crop failure, as well as ‘an unprecedented level of religious violence’, it resulted in 90 to 120 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians. These deaths make the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War by far the deadliest conflict in human history.

It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian ‘punitive assault’ on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes. Within hours of the initial nuclear exchange, national leaders in both countries were dead or uncommunicative, and central political authority collapsed. The conflict then dissolved into chaotic, large-scale hostilities between sectarian groups that caused the permanent members of the UN Security Council to create the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability in March 2019 and dispatch a peacekeeping expedition under its auspices.

The Emergency Commission suffered casualties at the hands of the then-emerging Rāṣṭrīya Hindū Rakṣaka movement in the Kolkata Riots and Hyderabad Riots of April-May 2019, which caused the UN Security Council to pull peacekeepers from and limit food aid to most of South Asia until the situation had stabilized. Between May 2019 and September 2019, there were over 100,000 ‘mass incidents’ of religious violence, largely triggered by armed clashes over dwindling food stocks. In response to the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the unrest, prominent Saudi and Egyptian clerics issued fatwas announcing jihad across the Indian subcontinent, and against the RHR movement in particular. The RHR movement responded with explicit declarations targeting ‘terrorists’, which international observers noted were aimed at those of Muslim belief. These factors contributed to ongoing religious unrest across India, which analysts estimate caused an additional 3-5 million casualties.

In November 2019, the Emergency Commission and the RHR movement negotiated terms for security and food deliveries across the subcontinent, which marked de facto recognition of the movement as the political successor to the Government of India. Most of Pakistan and parts of Northwestern India remain under the control of the Emergency Commission.

In addition to the massive loss of life, the war also resulted in regional economic devastation; the GDP of India fell by nearly 55% from its 2019 peak; the GDP of Pakistan fell by 80%. The war is widely viewed as the catalyst for the Copenhagen Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and NATO, and the Northeast Asia Security Summit between the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea.

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 [image missing] Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi

Date 12 January 2019 – 26 March 2019 (2 months, 14 days)

Location South Asia

Result
• Stalemate (disputed: Indian remnants claim they achieved victory)
• Collapse and dissolution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
• Collapse of the Government of India
• Creation of the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
• Emergence of the Rāṣṭrīya Hindū Rakṣaka paramilitary group
• Emergence of the All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (also known as Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
• UN occupation of Pakistan and Northwestern India

Belligerents
• Republic of India
• Rāṣṭrīya Hindū Rakṣaka paramilitary group
• Islamic Republic of Pakistan
• All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
• Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
• United States
• Russia
• China
• United Kingdom
• France
• Germany
• Canada
• Denmark
• South Korea
• Japan
• Sri Lanka
• Myanmar
• Nepal
• Bangladesh

Casualties
• Republic of India
• Military: 220,000 dead 170,000 missing 420,000 wounded
• Civilian and Paramilitary: 40-55,000,000 dead
• Islamic Republic of Pakistan
• Military: 150,000 dead 350,000 missing 300,000 wounded
• Civilian and Paramilitary: 50-65,000,000 dead
• Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability 127 dead 6 missing 441 wounded

The post predicts a war breaking out between India and Pakistan. It starts with Lashkar-e-Taiba launching a chemical weapons attack on Mumbai, which quickly escalated to a nuclear war which saw the destruction of central authority on both sides of the border. Following the elimination of central authority in both the regions, a Hindu extremist movement, the Rāṣṭrīya Hindū Rakṣaka movement (RHR) engages in widespread rioting throughout India, and a new group, All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (Al-Qaeda in South Asia) emerges to combat them. The UN intervenes, taking control of most of Pakistan and North India. There are more than 55 million casualties on the Indian side and more than 65 million casualties on the Pakistani side. The death toll is augmented by the outbreak of “Green death” and crop failure. The economies of both nations are devastated.

The post reads like a Wikipedia entry, and the first line, “The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between India and Pakistan….” is based on a real Wikipedia entry on the Indo-Pak war of 1965! The end of the post also has a list of supposed images that were to be included (but none were). To quote,

The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 [image missing] Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi.

Maybe the Powers That Be have their own private Wikipedia, where they collaborate on the narrative of upcoming events.

Macabre Imagination, Prank or Predictive Programming?

In the case of 9/11, we saw over-the-top predictive programming, designed to subliminally introduce the idea of some kind of catastrophe in New York city. Would the above post also fit the pattern of predictive programming?

Timing

The conflict begins in January 2019. The current situation escalated mid-February 2019. Not far off the mark.

Modi as PM

The post has correctly predicted Modi as the Prime Minister of India. But the post was made on 1st May 2014, and Modi assumed office on 26th May 2014. And therefore this was not exactly a prediction but an obvious truth.

Lashkar-e-Taiba

The post states that the terrorist attack was carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which is an actual militant organisation based in Pakistan. But the 14th February 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing/inside job was credited to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), another militant organisation based in Pakistan.

Both these organizations are closely linked together, and can even be considered interchangeable.

1. They owe their existence to the CIA (in their early years) and later to the ISI (Pakistani Intelligence). They have been cultivated in Pakistan for some mysterious reason, despite the fact that their activities are detrimental to not just Pakistan’s claim on Kashmir, but Pakistan’s image itself.
2. During the 2008 Mumbai attacks, a US citizen named David Headley was accidentally caught by Indian authorities. He was supposedly working for Lashkar-e-Taiba, who are credited with the attack.
3. The founder of JeM was Masood Azhar. He was freed from an Indian prison and transported to Pakistan after an Indian plane was hijacked in 1999. In another post I have explained how one of the other “freed” prisoners who would accompany him on this trip was Omar Saeed Shaikh, who was an operative of British Intelligence.
4. The leadership of both JeM and LeT is more of a showboating type. Their actual contribution to the “Jihad” against Indian presence in Kashmir remains to be quantified. The footsoldiers who do the fighting are usually simple-minded Afghan recruits, not the Rayban wearing, Pajero driving JeM and LeT leadership. We observe a similar parallel with Al Qaida. While contributing less than 1% to the “Jihad” against the Soviets, they were later able to usurp and displace the genuine leadership of the Mujahideen.

Rāṣṭrīya Hindū Rakṣaka movement

This appears to be an anagram for the RSS, an actual Hindu paramilitary organization. They were involved in the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. The assassin of Mahatma Gandhi, as well as some early ideologues of the RSS are of Chitpavani-Jewish origin.

It is important to note that at the end of the day, the UN and Western powers recognize it as the new “Government” of India, which means they were in cahoots all along.

The Destruction of the Indo-Islamic Civilization of the Subcontinent

The supposed war results in the complete annihilation of the Indo-Islamic Civilization of the Subcontinent, and most of North India and Pakistan is now replaced by a foreign entity (the UN).

This is clearly an ongoing project of the Illuminati, which started with British colonization. In a previous post, I have outlined that the partitioning of the Subcontinent in 1947 on religious lines was clearly a diabolical plot which reflected the same.

In a book, I have detailed how a full-blown war between India and Pakistan had already been scheduled for the 80s, and the Indian Army had even developed a strategical doctrine (Cold Start) to open a front against Pakistan around the same time. This was intended to deflect the Mujahidin from Afghanistan to the Indian border, so that Soviet losses could be minimized, and they would be able to march into the Subcontinent with minimal opposition. Needless, to say, a weary India would also fall to them later on. But the whole plot was destroyed by the recalcitrance of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who rightly decided it was in India’s best interests not to act as a Soviet proxy. He ended up being assassinated. The decades of stability and the blooming of the Indian economy that followed greatly owe to his decision.

On the other hand, The Powers That Be were able to gain complete control of the several kingdoms constituting modern-day China by staging a war between Communists and Nationalists, who were both backed by foreign powers. By the end of World War II, more than 35 million people had been killed, and modern-day China had been turned into an obnoxious “Animal Farm” remotely managed by Western elites.

So while The Powers That Be now rule China with an iron fist, they are still struggling to control the Subcontinent. And the post author seems cognizant of the same.

The Reduction of India and Pakistan’s GDP to 1947 levels

It has been documented that The Powers That Be aggressively “deindustrialize” any region they cannot control. They did it during the British colonisation of India, and they will do it again.

Nuclear Warfare

Despite their chest-thumping pride, both the nations of India and Pakistan could never have developed nuclear weapons without outside help. In the case of Pakistan, we even find a supposedly Islamophobic nation (the Dutch) playing a passive role. It is clear that these weapons were being developed so that they would be used against each other. It goes without doubt that there are secretive groups in both nations who will push for conflict, even though it is not in their best interests.

Deaths by Disease and Crop Failure

In late 2016, the Economist Magazine released a cryptic cover illustrating the state of the world in 2017. One of the illustrations clearly depicted mass deaths and a nuclear strike. Interestingly, India’s biggest strength, its agricultural independence, is being undermined for the first time since 1947 through a series of policies limiting the traditional privileges of farmers.

Who was the Poster?

The poster went by the username t_co. He/she/it was suspended by Reddit some time ago and therefore we do not have a profile page to look at. Based on some sleuthing, here is what has been ascertained.

He was active in Asian Reddit communities and Reddit Communities created by Western expatriates working in China.

This hints that he may be English-speaking and Western. He is requested to comment in a news item pertaining to the Chinese stock market.

He openly voiced his dislike for r/chinacirclejerk (now banned) and r/ccj

These subreddits were created by Western expatriates working in China and had grown quite popular. He requests that r/ccj be banned for racism and it seems that he was accused of doxing one if its mods (which would have been very dangerous for the mod if he/she was working in China). He was also accused of somehow managing to ban the same mod, which resulted in the community almost collapsing.

He was the founder of r/yellowperil, a subreddit that documents Western racism towards Chinese.

Unlike other Western expats, he was known to side with the Chinese, and resented other Western expatriates being critical of China. He would claim they were being racist. This would serve as a convenient way to disguise support/sympathy towards the Chinese government.

He was the founder/moderator of r/ChinaStories, another subreddit for Western expatriates

But unlike r/ccj, this one showcases Chinese experiences of Western expatriates in a much positive light.

He was repeatedly accused of having a sockpuppet account u/elcerodeluz

This account was also suspended and therefore no profile page to look at. This is a Spanish sounding username. It also appears to be the name of a Spanish language movie shot in Peru. To quote IMDB,

The mysterious death of a mountain shepherd awakens greed and superstition in a remote Peruvian village.

Some more information on u/elcerodeluz

If we are to consider u/elcerodeluz and u/t_co to be the same entities, we find much more revealing information posted by u/elcerodeluz.

He was accused of being defensive of Communist China because he was financially invested in it.

To this, he responds with this very revealing answer:

Well over 60% of our latest fund is invested outside China. I am financially invested, however, in a multipolar global system of mutually balanced, competing, but peaceful power blocs.

This creates competition between power blocs for human talent and financial capital using the tools of policy. In the long run, this competition is what drives politics forward. For example, the Civil Rights Act could not have happened without the Cold War.

I have no interest in seeing any one ideology triumph over the other. I only have an interest in making sure that all these systems compete against one another for the fruits of my labor and for my voice and viewpoints. Those systems that compete best for me win my support – up to the point which they look they will achieve hegemony, in which case I then shift my support to the next best system.

To put it another way, right now I experience a world where if one God does not answer my prayers, I can go to another God and repeat them with some possibility of success, and where both gods compete for my favor as a potential acolyte. I do not wish for any one of these self-proclaimed divinities to subjugate another, any more that I wish one leg of my kitchen table to chop off the other leg.

If there is one thing that is good to know… it would be why you detest a society and polity on so many levels, cheer for events that weaken it, and yet presumably tie your long-term worth to it and even live in it? Unlike yourself, I may indulge in the hypocrisies of the flesh, but not in the hypocrisy of the soul.

Please pay attention to the parts I have highlighted. Sounds like The Powers That Be.

He was suspended for the doxing of a mod of r/china, following which the mod was forced to delete his/her account and received death threats. 

To quote his threat,

As I told lordnikkon a week ago, the mods at /r/china would change. I trust all of you will learn to maintain a more balanced perspective on racism and bigotry falsely cloaked in political opinions or learned opinions. Should you not, I will continue in my efforts to ensure your opinions are known to as many of the ‘right’ people as possible.

The martyrdom of a reddit account is but a small price to pay for the cause of reshaping the norms of global discourse regarding my country and pushing her freedom of action as far as possible.

[…..]

Harmony and stability in Asia come from the blessing of China’s people. The peaceful development of the world comes from the guidance of the republic (PRC)! The Chinese people must be victorious!

May the glorious People’s Republic of China live for ten thousand years!

Needless to say, doxing sometimes requires the local services of Police/Intelligence. Doxing a Reddit user who has carefully covered his or her tracks requires some phone calls to Western Intelligence Agencies and/or Silicon Valley.

He seemed to favour r/Sino over r/China.

r/Sino seems to be a Chinese propaganda outlet.

He believes that Civil Disobedience against the Chinese Government should be punished with withdrawal of legal protection, which is rather extreme.

To quote,

If a body of citizens have voluntarily decided to disobey the laws of the State, then the State should voluntarily decide to withdraw the protection of law from them.

That means if you protest and you block streets and refuse to acknowledge the supremacy of the State and its law, the State will not enforce any laws to protect you (including laws protecting your property and life).

This should be the Government’s response to these Occultists. We’ll see if they’re still so enthusiastic about protesting knowing that in advance.

EDIT: Just thought of a corollary – apply this on a corporate level as well – companies which are majority owned by stockholders that have participated in or funded civil disobedience movements are no longer protected by contract law, and all their assets in the financial system will be frozen and confiscated.

And further,

It wouldn’t necessarily need to be applied on a mass level. The police have already collected plenty of footage that can identify those who have been deeply involved and/or directing the protests. Simply state that, going forward, for those individuals, the law no longer applies to them so long as they keep protesting – if someone beats the crap out of them or robs them or hacks their bank accounts, no one will be charged, etc.

This should also be applied on a corporate level. State that due to Jimmy Lai’s documented funding of civil disobedience activities, entities in which he holds a majority equity position will no longer be recognized as lawful organizations, and contracts will no longer be enforced on their behalf. It would wipe out his ability to fund and sustain the Occupy movement in a heartbeat.

[…..]

Ol’ Jim might choose to migrate his assets to another jurisdiction, in which case China should simply exclude any entity that does business with him from the Chinese banking system, in much the same way that the US excluded banks that handled funds for Iranian oil companies from the world financial system. Banks would find it easy to choose between one Jimmy Lai and the entire Chinese market, especially if they do business with China already. Jimmy would either lose the ability to operate his companies at all or find it impossible to pay out any RMB or HKD to mainland or HK staff, and either way, his ability to influence events would be permanently neutered.

He detests Western experts and scholars opinions on China because they are usually critical of the Communist Party.

But at the same time, he appears to be fairly knowledgeable of the same.

He believes that China should send an armed drone against an old Kirghiz woman who was speaking about the genocide of the Uighurs.

To quote,

You know who she sounds like? Anwar Al-Awlaki.

Guess what Anwar earned for delivering similar apologia for terrorism? A Hellfire missile – for him and his son.

Maybe China should do the same.

He regularly browsed r/india. And he is VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE of Indian-Chinese geopolitics and offers Intelligence-grade Insights. He also regards India with annoyance.

To quote,

Fun fact: India has nine times as many troops within 500km of the Indo-Chinese border as China does. India’s troop numbers within 500km of that border have doubled over the past few years while China’s have actually decreased 20%.

China doesn’t even have a whole division on the border (it has 3 brigades in Tibet). India has over six.

Chinese ORBAT and basing: http://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/agency/pla-orbat.htm

Indian ORBAT and basing: http://www.ordersofbattle.darkscape.net/site/maps/map_files/closed/india_centralcommand.gif

http://www.ordersofbattle.darkscape.net/site/maps/map_files/closed/india_easterncommand.gif

Also, China has offered to settle its land border with India along the Line of Actual Control repeatedly since 1991, in line with Chinese policy to settle its land borders – (12 out of 14 countries China borders by land have settled peacefully with China – including even Russia and Vietnam). The Chinese Foreign Ministry has sent over 150 entreaties to the Indian side over the past 20 years asking to resolve the border along the LoAC. It is India that keeps harboring fantasies of reversing its losses in 1962 and starting a (possibly nuclear) war over the barren moonscape that is Aksai Chin (and more personally, reversing the greatest humiliation of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty).

India is so recalcitrant about its border, it forbids Bhutan from discussing its border dispute with China or even having its own diplomatic relations with China (see the Indo-Bhutanese treaties of ‘friendship’) – because if Bhutan settles its border with China, then India is alone in looking like a bunch of stubborn fools. India has gone as far as to massively fund opposition candidates and withdraw cooking gas subsidies weeks before Bhutan’s elections because the Bhutanese PM talked to Wen Jiabao.

[….…..]

There were no practical losses as PRC withdrew back. The border was illegal before and after the war it did nothing in terms of wins and losses for either countries on the ground.

Quite true – I stand corrected.

If you meant psychological losses and revenge, that is more believable but not totally convincing as well.

The losses I am referring to are the disproportionate manpower and materiel losses the Indian Army suffered vis a vis its Chinese counterpart.

This is totally wrong. India today is very averse to Nehru in regards to his handling of the Chinese of 50’s 60’s. He is the most blamed person for the War and the loss so the idea of reversing it for him or his family does not even arise.

If that is the case, why does India continue to restrict distribution of the Henderson-Brooks-Bhagat Report, which clearly states that Nehru’s ‘forward policy’ had pushed Indian Army outposts north of even India’s own claimed border, the McMahon Line, and that when Nehru met Zhou En-Lai, he claimed the photos Zhou brought of Indian troops north of the line were falsehoods, while then failing to inform the Indian Army that their outposts had gotten caught and to take defensive measures?

Also the current public mood is even more anti-Gandhi family, hence the current Govt. The Congress is being decimated all over the country in National and Regional elections. It could become even become extinct as an entity if it doesn’t get its act right.

In that case, since Modi is not weighed down with the historical baggage of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, he should push for the release of the HBB report and put the demons haunting India’s China policy to rest, for good.

[….….]

I don’t like to throw the word “wumao” around but I can’t help but feel that you’re being rather disingenuous with your post

How am I being disingenuous?

and a glance and your comment history reveals a high degree of concentration on this particular issue as well as other pro-CCP stuff – as though this were more than a hobby for you.

A glance at my comment history shows I make, on average, between 2-4 comments on reddit per day. There are users like /u/madazzahatter, /u/movingon11, /u/jewish_neocon2 (up until his shadowban), /u/thedark1, /u/Bennelong etc who can make that many comments per hour – all on the same topic as well (and in some cases, are virtual avatars of hate). If you’re insinuating this is more than a hobby for me…

I’m willing to bet that India has more than nine times as many people living in that area too. The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sparsely populated regions on Earth while the Ganges River Basin is one of the most densely populated. It’s also where the Indian capital is located.

True

Doesn’t it make sense for the Indians to defend that?

Fair point – but from who? Is China going to somehow steamroll India’s 225,000 Tibet-facing Army units with its 25,000 troops in Tibet, and then push past the 250,000 or so troops defending New Delhi?

For a case in point: China and Russia fought a war in 1969, even more recently than the 1962 between China and India. China has close to 20x the people in Manchuria that Russia has in the Far East, yet on that border, China keeps less than 60,000 troops against Russia’s 40,000 – and both countries are continually drawing down their numbers of forward-deployed units. (Seriously, PLA units facing Russia are dead fucking last on the PLA General Logistics Dept’s list for equipment upgrades.) Do you know why those two countries do that, even though Russia is much more frightening to China than China could ever be to India? Because both China and Russia recognize they have nothing to gain from invading each other, and so have decided to settle their borders and make ice sculptures with each other.

China has clearly realized India would never invade it, and it has nothing to gain from invading India. Why can’t India realize that vis a vis China?

The Line of Actual Control was unilaterally imposed on India by the PRC after they sent their armies in to occupy them and a cease-fire was signed. Are you really trying to make us believe that this was some magnanimous gesture by the Chinese?

Strawman: I never said it was magnanimous. I said it expressed Chinese intent of no armed aggression against India.

I can’t help but notice you had to say “land” borders and it’s because, as we all know, China has sea border disputes with ALL its neighbors, even “neighbors” as far away as Malaysia and Brunei.

😆 Everyone in Asia has sea border disputes with everyone else:

Japan – borders Taiwan, Russia, SKorea, and China by sea. Has disputes with Taiwan, Russia, SKorea, and China.

Russia – borders China and Japan by sea. Has land and sea disputes with Japan.

Vietnam – borders Taiwan, China, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei by sea. Has disputes with all of them.

The Phillippines – same situation as Vietnam.

And so on and so on…

The point of the 12/14 land border statistic is to show that by and large, relative to its neighbors and especially relative to India, China is markedly more peaceful in adjudicating its border disputes. You know how India has treated its land border disputes?

In 1961, India claimed Portugese Goa (in a similar way to how China claimed British Hong Kong) – but instead of negotiating Goa’s retrocession, India invaded it.

1962, India doesn’t like China’s claim on Tibet, so it starts doing a forward policy with the aim of taking chunks of Tibet away from China. Gets its ass handed to it.

In 1965, India and Pakistan go to war over Kashmir.

In 1971, India and Pakistan do it again, except this time India invades West Pakistan and turns it into Bangladesh. (Granted, Pakistan treated what is now Bangladesh pretty terribly, but it still shows that by and large, the Republic of India is much more warlike than the People’s Republic of China).

On Kashmir, Pakistan has tried bringing up the issue to UN-led mediation time and time again. Who has said no? India – over 12 times in the past decade alone.

Contrast that with China, who actually made territorial concessions in 8 out of the 12 negotiation processes for its current set of undisputed land borders.

So which nation is the one that can’t handle border disputes in a normal manner?

[……]

What else is the alternative? Meekly submit to China controlling your nation’s water supply and hope they will be benevolent and self-sacrificing as the Himalayan ice reserves melt?

Framing the issue as a choice between meek submission to China and active subversion of Tibet is a false dilemma. First, upstream damming has a much smaller impact on downstream water flow than is commonly believed, as Bangladesh’s own experience with Indian damming indicates.

Second, states negotiate like adults over water rights all the time, without holding a border situation hostage or threatening subversion and war. The various states of Europe, for example, have negotiated water rights along the Rhine, Danube, etc. quite amicably. China has offered to let India station observers on the Tibetan headwaters of the Brahmaputra River, for example. If India feels it has to act like a 3-year-old to get its way regarding water rights, why is the onus on China to negotiate?

Third, even if China completely dried up the flow from Tibetan headwaters, it would only impact around 1.1% of India’s total freshwater supply. India could easily replace that with a sustained investment in desalinization and water conservation technologies.

Finally, the largest threat to India’s freshwater supply – affecting 60-70% of the supply – is pollution from human and animal waste. Why ought India spend so much effort and risk war for 1% of its water when its failure to build proper plumbing and toilet systems endangers 2/3rds of its water?

Water access is a legitimate grievance

Water access is not a legitimate casus belli, or a legitimate grievance to drive actions leading to a casus belli (such as active subversion and recalcitrance on a border dispute because you want an excuse to carve out Tibet from China).

and none of your comments addressed this issue at all.

They just did.

Beijing can’t settle the border issue if they continue to brush off the water issue.

Yes it can. All it needs to do is show the world that the basis upon which India’s border logic rests does not hold water (if this is the basis at all, which I don’t think it is), and then India’s sensitivity to world opinion will do the rest. Or maybe give Pakistan some MIRV tech.

Why Plans are always Plans

This time, there is no Rajiv Gandhi for India, and the stage appears to be set.

But if the Powers That Be had their way, the Subcontinent would be destroyed in the Partition violence following 1947.

And if the Powers That Be had their plans come to fruition, the Subcontinent would have been destroyed in 80s when the Soviets came rumbling over the mountains of Afghanistan.

But since they too are humans at the end of the day, all they can do is create a blueprint and hope to steer preexisting events and situations according to it, and hope that people show apathy. The reddit post in question appears to be a rubric. If things unfold according to it, we must assume without a shadow of doubt, that the political/military/intelligence of both India and Pakistan have been seriously compromised by outside forces, and the region is all set to become another Globalist Animal Farm like the People’s Republic of China (once the radioactive dust settles).